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TTC Special: World Tourism: Deflationary or Inflationary Process for Opening?

Photo: Moerschy/Pixabay.

By Frank Martin

The broader world reopening to tourism after Covid-19 has brought conjecture, one of them is whether an uncontrollable inflationary process will occur in the return to normality.

Experts assure that inflationary processes are a sequel to be overcome by the tourist restart after  heavy losses in the industry in almost two years of pandemic.

During the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, a deflationary process was predicted by then, that is a crash in prices everywhere

According to this kind of analysis, COVID-19 would be a powerful deflationary force.

A diversity in markets study  in early 2020 about the impact  of the pandemic did not fully proved  the theory.

Currently, at times of reopening, experts see the opposite extreme. That is, they forecast severe price increases for all kinds of services.

Concern is so acute that some wonder if the future of global tourism industry will be that only the wealthy can afford their vacations.

A recent poll in the United KIingdom proved that there are divided views on theory.

The predictions for next year tend to ensure that during 2022 prices will rise from a need to cancel losses caused by the coronavirus in all economic sectors participating in the leisure industry.

A businessmen  survey in the sector resulted in one in three thinking that such an increase will be between 1% and 20%. versus 2021.

However  a  second opinion obtained  was that the rise in 2022 could reach 35% driven by the urgent need to recoup losses.

A part of those questioned believed that the real needs of the branch should looks for stable prices within in a  framework of normality without excesses.

Whatever the results of the study have been, one of the conjectures has not changed and that is that world tourist destinations are diverse in their programs and needs.

An inflationary process would indefinitely “eliminate” vacationers with fewer resources that will number in the millions after the shortage of personal income caused by the virus.

The wealthy will continue to spend their free time in luxury accommodations with expensive vacations.

But a good part of middle-income destinations in their tourism industry probably will not raise their prices looking for a numerical recovery of customers that ensures a high rate of returns.

“Rather than a process of raising prices, the reopening should establish situations that attract as many tourists as possible,” commented a specialist consulted. “One of those attractions is moderate prices,” he said.

The global answer would be in traditional destinations with moderate prices for which it would be risky to close for clients who were surely not financially favored by the terrible pandemic.

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