By Frank Martin
The ups and downs of Covid-19 pandemic including the tense wait around the world for the results of the vaccines generates uncertainty about 100 million jobs possible return to international tourism next summer.
Recovery forecasts are emerging about how long the coronavirus reign will last.
But the darkness of winter omens is being replaced by a pleasant and sensible summer breeze.
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated in its most recent report on the epidemic that “the world is recovering.”
The encouraging forecast from the powerful London-based organization held that at least 100 million jobs will return soon in the international entertainment industry.
Many of the major international travel companies report a significant increase in summer bookings based on the forecast.
WTTC predicts 111 million jobs will be reactivated if all goes well.
The bad news is that the figure is only 17% from 2019.
Future statistics represent 54 million fewer jobs in real terms.
The loss of jobs proves to some experts in world tourism that Covid-19 will be an economic disgrace anyway.
However, it indicates that all is not lost. It would be, they say, a good revival of the branch.
Other experts point out that the recovery statistic could remain at just 84 million jobs.
That will be 25% below 2019 levels, with 82 million fewer jobs recovered.
The WTTC is confident that masks and especially global vaccination will do their job very well.
And what will happen in the Caribbean?
The Caribbean region full of beaches and very beautiful landscapes had a very bad 2020 because of the epidemic. This, among other things, means that the estimates suffer from a pessimistic part.
Traveler arrivals to the sunny region fell 75% in the last three quarters of 2020. The contraction of general economic growth in the Caribbean was 6.2% in 2020.
But for the moment, the bad numbers are being replaced by well-founded, cautious and hopeful openings.
The Caribbean, which is dependent on tourists, already sees a full recovery on the horizon, although experts warn against over-optimism.
Jamaica’s Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett expects such a full recovery in tourism, but by 2023 or 2024.
Most recent dates, he explained, will depend on how quit well be the re-establishment of air travel and cruises.
Bartlett warned anyway that his prediction was made based on his country, Jamaica.
Last year there was a loss of the vacation sector estimated at more than five billion in profits due to a drop in the arrival of tourists estimated at 2.3 million due to the pandemic.
The grim statistics are due to the fact that by 2020 the island had calculated a growth of more than 5.2% compared to 2019, a year that was record.
Very realistic analyzes indicate that in the Caribbean, and also in the rest of the world, the tourism industry will need crucial changes and investments in a process to increase options for clients, with high parameters of sanitary security.
Another warning reminds that the epidemic is universal. That can be said in another way: Covid-19 affect both destinations places and emitters of tourists.
This will require planetary solutions.